Is it possible to counter random?

[carykh]

Is it possible to counter random?

[shadowleafy]

yes. It's possible. Not gonna say how but I can get ~ 2.93 average against randoms.

[nobody5050]

Yep, I’m getting the same against randoms

[Barigamb738]

I got ~ 3.01
Also, a hint is to look into why the iterated prisoner's dilemma is different than the original in the first place.

[jherndon8]

I’ll eat my hat if the winning strategy doesn’t exploit randoms

[l4vr0v]

@domdabomb42 , here's two naive approaches:

• Within a window of past moves, count unprovoked defections by your opponent (defections that didn't come after a defection from you). If these occur with a frequency above some threshold, assume you are facing random. (I use this in some of my detective variants.)
• Count unprovoked defections throughout the game. If these exceed a threshold (constant), assume you are facing random (@Lasermancer uses this and shared it in the Discord).

Note that you probably want a good backoff strategy because these random-detection heuristics are brittle (e.g., they can misfire for joss or for deferred tit-for-tat'ers). You can, of course, come up with something more sophisticated and statistical - think of what would be true for an opponent whose moves have no relationship with yours!

[domdabomb42]

Thanks @I4vr0v. I'm gonna use unprovoked for now and try to figure out something better once after I counter some of the other strategies.