Comments (5)
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That's a very good point, and the probabilistic layer of extreme heat would be quite useful.
I will start downloading the ERA5-UTCI from CDS and kick-start addressing this issue.
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Thanks Arthur for successfully completing the analysis!
We now have daily min and max over period 1940-2020 in °C for 10 return periods (5, 10, 20, 50, 75, 100, 200, 250, 500, 1000 years). Most likely we will only consider up to RP100.
Preview of RP 20 daily MAX (°C)
Compared with RP 20 WBGT, seems very consistent:
Additional indices to be produced:
- Mean
- Days above/below thresholds - TBD
Propose:- days over 32
- days over 38
- days over 46
- days below 0
- days below -13
- days below -27
A short tech doc will be added to the data.
@stufraser1 can I share with you for review?
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from ccdr-tools.
From Nick:
Sally Beth Murray is leading a team producing a CCDR guidance note on heat analysis. She could advise more about where she sees data gaps for conducting heat analysis in CCDR. As a starting point, I think having datasets for a present day reference period and future time periods (under the SSP scenarios most used in the CCDRs) corresponding to the impact channels mentioned below could be useful. It would take a bit more thinking to confirm whether there is a gap in the publicly available datasets and if VITO could fill it - but interested to hear what options they can propose.
Modeling use case | Data requirements | |
---|---|---|
Labor productivity loss | Max daily temperature / WBGT (accounting for UHI) - present and future periods or: lost working hours per year (for low, medium, high intensity work as defined by exertion level in Watts *) - present and future periods |
|
Health impacts | Number of hot nights per year (WBGT) Heatwave days per year - present and future periods | |
Infrastructure impacts | Hours per year above given air temperature threshold (eg. 35°C) - present and future periods |
Link to labour loss functions in publications by Kjellstrom or other authors. Intensity categories are defined under ISO standards.
Existing global datasets on heat hazard
More to be added, eg. the dataset the NBS team uses in their scans. Perhaps we can ask an STC to develop out the table.
Name | Description |
---|---|
Zhang et al | 1km gridded dataset of air temperatures (2003-2010) based on weather station data (accounts for UHI). |
UHE-Daily (Tuholske et al) | Count of hot-humid days (1983-2016). Note: currently available in a city-by-city dataset but will be released as gridded raster data soon. |
CHC-CMIP6 | Projections of daily max temperature and WBGT for 2030 and 2050 under SSPs2-4.5 and 5-8.5 at 5km resolution (UHI accounted for). Currently undergoing peer review |
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Related Issues (20)
- CCDR development plan HOT 2
- Parallel code refinement HOT 2
- Update Landslide data HOT 1
- Framework for Return Period calculation
- Update air quality hazard and vulnerability
- Tropical cyclones (strong wind): regionalized impact function HOT 1
- Drought hazard: better indicator and projections
- Exposure datasets: migrate to other sources HOT 1
- Align data analytics pipeline and risk dashboard HOT 2
- Curves for flood damage on crops HOT 4
- Ranking of risk: combining indices, comparability in time and space
- TEMP - Global hazard data
- Disaster data collection and elaboration
- Add Wildfire hazard [optional feature, only wherever relevant]
- Framework for models intercomparison
- Align climate scenarios to CCDR guidance HOT 1
- Measure or visualize exposure change in hazard risk maps HOT 1
- Accessing and processing Fathom 3 data HOT 1
- Update notebooks
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