Comments (3)
Hi Swapnil,
thank you for promp feedback
I meant CI of the estimate (shown at 2nd graph at https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/Spain)
Am I correct to understand that same relative change in % of Rt due to interventions is still assumed for all countries..? for me it s a bit of counterintuitive, as I'd rather expect that invervention with same strictness and enforceabily will results in same absulute level of Rt post intervention. So now when we have more historical data, we have to fit it by country. Which is especially needed for Sweden and UK to evidence impact of milder interventions.
from covid19model.
Hi @d-Slava sorry for the discrepancy, the credible interval is for the mean of the estimate not the observation. We have a negative-binomial likelihood that has an extra variance term in there, which if drawn covers the observation.
from covid19model.
So for this model, this is what we had in assumptions. We are soon releasing an update where each country will have its specific factor too. But still will borrow strength from other countries. Currently, we are full pooling and the next update would be partial pooling. Keep an eye it will be out less than a week.
from covid19model.
Related Issues (20)
- R value in base.stan HOT 2
- Full run: execution halted after 8 hours - no figures HOT 3
- Sweden exception to general intervention effects
- Prior for R_0 -- suggestion HOT 5
- Error "Rejecting initial value" HOT 2
- Updated data HOT 2
- Smoothing reported death data HOT 1
- new release for US report? HOT 3
- Data analysis for subdivision per country HOT 1
- Possible incorrect mixing of percentage and unit ratios in mobility forecast
- Divergent transitions in stan fits HOT 1
- Parametrization on population compliance to hygien and security rules
- conda env geofacet HOT 1
- posterior parameter values for alpha, alpha_region, and alpha_state HOT 1
- alpha_region HOT 3
- Typo in mean time from onset-to-death HOT 1
- Running Errors in windows10 HOT 1
- Incorrect Model Output
- Data for UK incorrect? HOT 2
- Access and Discussion of Google mobility data feature HOT 5
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from covid19model.