Comments (2)
This is an old issue, but I was just looking again at tsa.stattools.acf. The confidence intervals look good to me, but there is not test coverage. I don't know where we can get the values from though.
One question is, do we want to center the confidence intervals about zero? Many programs do this, so anything outside of it is different from zero, but we center ours around the estimates, which is fine but looks a little bad. Compare these
from statsmodels.datasets.macrodata import load_pandas
from statsmodels.tsa.base.datetools import dates_from_range
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import statsmodels.api as sm
plt.interactive(False)
cpi = load_pandas().data["cpi"]
dates = dates_from_range("1959q1", "2009q3")
cpi.index = dates
log_cpi = np.log(cpi)
acf, confint_acf = sm.tsa.acf(log_cpi.diff().values[1:], confint=95)
# center the confidence intervals about zero
#confint_acf -= confint_acf.mean(1)[:,None]
fig = plt.figure()
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax.set_title("Autocorrelation")
ax.plot(range(41), acf, 'bo', markersize=5)
ax.vlines(range(41), 0, acf)
ax.fill_between(range(41), confint_acf[:,0], confint_acf[:,1], alpha=.25)
fig.tight_layout()
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Closed in 8fdb37c.
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