airbr/data-to-coup

Data To Coup

Requirements: Python 2.7, Anaconda with following python libraries installed

1. numpy
2. pandas
3. sklearn
4. matplotlib
5. patsy

Models used:

• Random Forest
• AdaBoost
• Logistic Regression

Problem Statement: Considering social and political instabilities that have occurred in recent times, I want predict the likelihood of a coup d'etat within a country, given specific economic, political and social factors.

• Economic factors: income per capita, growth rate
• Social factors: accounts of ethnic violence, religious, linguistic, and ethnic fractionalization, fatalities from violence, urbanization
• Political factors: polity score, length of stay for incumbent head of state

Data Dictionary:

Variable	Description	Data Type	Variable Type
country	Country Name	Object	Unique
coup	1 = Coup(successful and attempted), 0 = No coup	Integer	Binary
gdppercap	GDP per capita	Float	Continuous
gdpgrowth	GDP growth rate	Float	Continuous
urbanpop	Percentage of urban population	Float	Continuous
gendeathmag	Scaled annual number of deaths (range 0-5.0)	Float	Categorical Ordinal
revmagfight	Scaled annual number of fatalities related to revolutionary fighting (range 0-4)	Integer	Categorical Ordinal
ethmagfatal	Scaled annual number of fatalities related to ethnic fighting (range 0-4)	Integer	Categorical Ordinal
revmagfatal	Scaled number of rebel combatants or activists in revolutionary war (range 0-4)	Integer	Categorical Ordinal
ethmagfight	Scaled number of rebel combatants or activists in ethnic war (range 0-4)	Integer	Categorical Ordinal
polity2	Polity scale ranging from +10 (strongly democratic) to -10 (strongly autocratic)	Integer	Categorical Non-Ordinal
durable	Regime durabilty: the number of years since the most recent regime	Float	Categorical Ordinal
yip	Number of years head of state has been in power	Integer	Continuous
none	No violence occured	Float	Binary
eth	Indicates the occurence of an ethnic violence	Float	Binary
rev	Indicates the occurence of a revolutionary violence	Float	Binary
gen	Indicates the occurence of a genocide	Float	Binary
ethnic	Ethnic Fractionalization	Float	Continuous
linguistic	Linguistic Fractionalization	Float	Continuous
religious	Religious Fractionalization	Float	Continuous

A more detailed explanation of this project can be found on my website