andersonjaraujo/weddingriskmodel

Creation of a Shiny app to measure the risk uncertainty with wedding guest invitations.

Wedding Risk Modeling App

Understand

I will be having a wedding in less than a year and just went through the process of selecting a venue. Part of the process included fixed and variable costs that depend on the number of guests that ultimately RSVP to attend the wedding.

My first question of this process was wondering how many people ultimately respond to wedding invitations. In other words, of the people we invite, how many can we expect to attend?

I wondered if there was a better way to quantify the uncertainty of how many people I can expect to attend, and then turn that into an estimate of what my budget will be. Additionally, that estimate can be extended into a risk of going over budget.

Explore

I looked to combine elements of statistical simulation, risk analytics, and design thinking to build a product that will extend a single example use-case into a flexible product that others can use.

Data is generated through the tool using the Bernoulli process and the user inputs. Outcomes are based on 10,000 simulation trials.

• Detailed Analysis

Operationalize

I developed a minimum viable product solution as a shiny app using R, Shiny and flexdashboard.

The intent is for a user to enter their own inputs and then click “Run Model”. They then receive the results of their simulation.

• Shiny App

Improve

Potential next improvements:

• Add user guide instructions
• Add info tab for the simulation process
• Turn functions into package
• Allow for different distributions to be sampled
• Adapt the model to optimize the guest count to minimize risk and maximize invitation count.

Contact Information

If you have any questions and/or feedback, please contact me below:

• LinkedIn