benbagbag/seattle_beps_modelling

Modeling building emissions for 350 Seattle

Models to Predict Emissions between 2027-2050 with BEPS

This repository models emissions from large (>20k sq ft) Seattle buildings between 2027 and 2050 for Seattle's proposed Benchmark Emissions Performance Standards (BEPS) legislation.

The original base model was built in Google Sheets by RMI. The models in this repository, written by @BenBagBag on behalf of 350 Seattle, correct some calculation errors in that model and also represent expanded models based on proposed amendments.

Note: This is a public repository to show our methodology. It is not a complete representation of all the modelling and calculations done for 350 Seattle. If you have questions about specific models or numbers, please email me.

Input data

Available in data/input_data:

• energy_emissions.csv: a table of predicted emissions factors for electric, gas, and steam power in Seattle, year by year until 2050. This was predicted by calculating the rate of decline given by the city and assuming that will remain steady.
• jan_proposal_emissions_targets.csv and june_proposal_emissions_targets.csv: the timeline for when each building type/size must meet specific GHGI targets. These are the city's proposals in January and June of 2023.
• Data cleaning: this folder is a Jupyter notebook and CSV's associated calculating buildings' square footage and usage.

Models

There are two models included in this repo:

The Baseline Model

Found in models/baseline_model.py. This class models expected emissions for each building subject to the policy between 2027 and 2050. The model is used in models/Jan and June Proposals with Baseline Model.ipynb to calculate emissions under the City's two proposed timelines. The Jupyter notebook also includes a description of the methodology.

The Alternative Compliance Model

Found in models/alternative_compliance_model.py. This class models expected emissions for each building subject to the policy, taking into account a proposed ammendment that will loosen emissions standards for campuses, highly-polluting buildings, and buildings with unclassified use types. The model includes a description of the ammendment. The model is not fully tested, use at your own discretion.

Using the model

1. Install the requirements: $ pip install -r requirements.txt
2. Start a Jupyter notebook (included in the requirements.txt file): $ jupyter notebook
3. This will open a UI in your default browser. You can then explore files and run code. You can go to Help -> User Interface Tour if you're not familiar with Jupyter notebooks.
4. An example of how to use the Baseline Model is in models/Jan and June Proposals.ipynb.