🇦🇹 Österreich Austria - COVID-19 Cases

Data concerning confirmed cases and recoveries of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Sources:

The Bundesministerium für Soziales, Gesundheit, Pflege und Konsumentenschutz's update page
Historical data (before 2020-03-11) was filled in from archive.org's historical snapshots of the above page.

Current Data

Last updated at:

Updates

2020-03-20: Austria has stopped reporting recovered cases, so "active" below is not a reliable figure
2020-03-13: Austria announces drastic measures in effort to flatten the curve

Data in CSV Format:

Total Confirmed Cases

Total Active Cases

"active" cases are those which have not recovered or not died

Total Confirmed Recoveries

Total Deaths

Total Tests

Bestätigte und aktive Fälle Österreichweit

"active" cases are those which have not recovered or not died

Neue bestätigte Fälle pro Tag Österreichweit

Bisher durchgeführte Testungen in Österreich

Confirmed cases by Bundesland

Forecast of increase in infections

Assumes no significant change to mitigation measures
- Given the announcement on 2020-03-13 by the Austrian Government, this is not a valid assumption.
Credit to Hans Fangohr for the methodology

Forecast for cases in Austria:

Last data point used in forecast from 2020-03-28 00:00:00

Infections in 25 days:   7981 (29 Mar 2020)
Infections in 26 days:   8696 (30 Mar 2020)
Infections in 27 days:   9440 (31 Mar 2020)
Infections in 28 days:  10215 (01 Apr 2020)
Infections in 29 days:  11021 (02 Apr 2020)
Infections in 30 days:  11856 (03 Apr 2020)
Infections in 31 days:  12722 (04 Apr 2020)
Infections in 32 days:  13619 (05 Apr 2020)
Infections in 33 days:  14546 (06 Apr 2020)
Infections in 34 days:  15505 (07 Apr 2020)
Infections in 35 days:  16493 (08 Apr 2020)
Infections in 36 days:  17513 (09 Apr 2020)
Infections in 37 days:  18564 (10 Apr 2020)
Infections in 38 days:  19645 (11 Apr 2020)
Infections in 39 days:  20758 (12 Apr 2020)
Infections in 40 days:  21901 (13 Apr 2020)
Infections in 41 days:  23076 (14 Apr 2020)
Infections in 42 days:  24282 (15 Apr 2020)
Infections in 43 days:  25520 (16 Apr 2020)
Infections in 44 days:  26788 (17 Apr 2020)
Infections in 45 days:  28088 (18 Apr 2020)
Infections in 46 days:  29420 (19 Apr 2020)
Infections in 47 days:  30783 (20 Apr 2020)
Infections in 48 days:  32177 (21 Apr 2020)
Infections in 49 days:  33603 (22 Apr 2020)
Infections in 50 days:  35061 (23 Apr 2020)
Infections in 51 days:  36550 (24 Apr 2020)
Infections in 52 days:  38071 (25 Apr 2020)
Infections in 53 days:  39624 (26 Apr 2020)

Fit parameters: p = 2.075 c = 10.6 t0= -0.000 a0= -446.591

Fitting the curve

Forecasts for cases in Austria

How long does it take for the number of infections to double?

ORF reported on 2020-03-12 that doubling was at 2.5 days
however the the recent Lancet paper reports 6.4 days after studiying data from China for Dec 31, 2019, to Jan 28, 2020,
based on $n(t') = 2n(t)$ , we find $t' = \left((2(t-t_0)^p+\frac{a_0}{c}\right)^\frac{1}{p} + t_0$
the time for infections or deaths to double is thus given by $t' - t$
Assumes no significant change to mitigation measures
Credit to Hans Fangohr for the methodology

Notably these findings reproduce the ORFs reporting that in Austria around 2020-03-12 doubling was happening every 2.5 days.

Forecast for infections doubling in austria:

at day  0 (04 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  nan days
at day  2 (06 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  nan days
at day  4 (08 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  nan days
at day  6 (10 Mar 2020), the time to double n is -0.1 days
at day  8 (12 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  1.5 days
at day 10 (14 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  2.7 days
at day 12 (16 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  3.7 days
at day 14 (18 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  4.7 days
at day 16 (20 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  5.6 days
at day 18 (22 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  6.5 days
at day 20 (24 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  7.4 days
at day 22 (26 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  8.2 days
at day 24 (28 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  9.0 days
at day 26 (30 Mar 2020), the time to double n is  9.9 days
at day 28 (01 Apr 2020), the time to double n is 10.7 days

Developer

Setup your virtualenv

virtualenv -p $(which python3) venv
source venv/bin/activate

Update the csvs

pip install -r requirements.txt
python -m parsers.austria

Update the plots

jupyter nbconvert --execute --inplace *.ipynb

License

Licensed under BSD 3-Clause License

Copyright (c) 2020, Hans Fangohr
Copyright (c) 2020, Casey Link

Inspired by:

danielw2904 / austria-covid-19 Goto Github PK

austria-covid-19's Introduction