dennisjooo/corn-production-time-series

An application of time-series model to predict corn productions in the US

Modelling Corn Production in United States

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Made by:

• Gilbert Aurelio Sachio
• Genta Ananda Putra Kharisma
• Dennis Jonathan

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This project was done as a final project for our Regression Analysis and Forecasting Technique course.

According to Britanica, corn (Zea Mays) is undeniably woven to the roots of our society. There are a lot of uses of corn, such as food for the people, feed for livestocks, industrial uses, and in the coming age of renewable energy, as a component for biofuel. For this final project, our group decided to analyze whether the production of corn can be modelled using time-series methods.

We will be focusing our analysis on the production of corn in the United States of America, in particular the national production of corn grain measured in Bushels abbreviated as Bu (a unit of volume). The dataset will be taken from surveys conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture which is available here and we will be limiting the period from the year 1900 and 2020.

We used two time-series technique, Holt's Exponential Smoothing and AutoRegressive Moving Average model in order to capture the year-to-year corn production in hope to use either one of those two to forecast future values of corn production.