eipi10/covid_adjusted_cfr

Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020

Julien Riou ([email protected]), Anthony Hauser ([email protected]), Michel J. Counotte ([email protected]) and Christian L. Althaus ([email protected])

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland

Abstract. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic that originated in Wuhan, China has spread to more than 60 countries. We estimated the age-specific case fatality ratio (CFR) by fitting a transmission model to data from China, accounting for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Overall CFR among all infections was 1.6% (1.4-1.8%) and increased considerable for the elderly, highlighting the expected burden for populations with further expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic around the globe.

Figure. (A) Reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Hubei province by date of disease onset (blue) and reported deaths (red) from 8 December 2019 to 11 February 2020. (B) Age distribution of the Chinese population compared to that of confirmed cases of and deaths due to COVID-19. (C) Proportion of individuals infected by COVID-19 showing symptoms among passengers of the Diamond Princess ship (with 95% credible interval).