flogvit/probability

probability

Probability is very difficult to understand. It is easy to calculate wrong, and the mathematics for it are above most peoples understanding. I myself keep picking the wrong answers if I just rely on what I read and what would seem to be correct.

I like to verify things programmatically. It is usually easier to understand the logic in a test than in mathematical equations. It does not prove anything, but it gives us an easy way of seeing some numbers. And it is much easier to understand numbers than equations.

This repo will try to include a lot of typical probability questions an average person could think of.

Lotto

This includes different lotto probability checks

Two adjacent numbers

How often does a draw of lotto numbers include two adjacent numbers? It will change with the numbers you have to pick from, and how many numbers you must pick, but here is a list from doing 10 millions draw each time

Answer LottoAdjacentNumber

For 34 numbers where you pick 7 (standard norwegian lotto)

run	percentage
1	77
2	78
3	78
4	78
5	77

For 48 numbers where you pick 6 (standard norwegian viking lotto)

run	percentage
1	50
2	50
3	50
4	50
5	50

Picking same numbers vs picking different numbers

Is it smart to pick the same numbers each week, or should you pick different numbers? What is best?

Answer LottoSameNumbers

Each run tests 10000 rounds of first winner

run	same	different
1	5036	4964
2	4978	5022

I guess it does not really matter what you do, there is no real difference.

Picking same numbers with adjacent vs picking different numbers

Ok, we saw that it is very probable that you will find two numbers adjacent in a winning draw. So perhaps you then think it is smart to pick two numbers adjacent when you set up your numbers? Well, let us test

Answer LottoAdjacentSameNumbers

Each run test 1000 rounds of first winner, same as picking same numbers, but we're making sure we have at least two adjacent numbers in our same numbers. The different numbers are just random.

run	same	different
1	475	525
2	495	505
3	497	503
4	526	474