Based on the UCDP GED data base on violent conflict events, the density of both the occurrence of conflicts and associated fatalities are estimated in Western African countries for the years 2018 to 2022. KfW project locations (the data is not shared due to privacy constraints) are then overlaid with the densities to analyse the exposure to conflict of projects in the area.
- UCDP GED v23.1 (vector)
- Project locations (vector, not included)
- empirical density estimation of conflict occurrences (raster)
- empirical density estimation of fatalities (raster)
- classified estimation of conflict density (raster)
- classified estimation of fatalities density (raster)
- filtered version of UCDP GED data base in the area (vector)
- project locations with extracted values of the density estimations (vector, not included)
The UCDP GED data base is filtered to only include events that lie within Western African countries for the time period from 2018 to 2022. Points with a location accuracy worse than level 3 (indicating an accuracy at the level of sub-national administrative districts) are excluded. Events occurring at the same location are combined on a yearly basis, i.e. treated as a single event at that location or the sum of causalities over that year. These points are then treated as a point pattern and the empirical density of the number of conflicts and the number of total fatalities area calculated based on a 10 by 10 km spatial grid using a Gaussian kernel with a bandwidth of 25 kilometers. Pixel values represent intensity values, i.e. the observed count of conflicts / number of fatalities within the estimation kernel centered at the respective pixel in relation to the pixel size. Based on a subjective classification scheme, areas of varying conflict intensities are mapped and overlayed with project locations. For reasons of confidentiality, project locations are not included here.
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