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blue cat vs black cat

此题来自osu HD群群友!!!

把时间拨到饭点,打东边来的蓝猫当了一天帕鲁,收获了100条鱼,打西边来的黑猫当了一天超级帕鲁,收获了300条鱼,已知鱼在下一天午夜过后准时腐坏,两只猫猫的饭量是每天100条鱼

黑猫想要欺负蓝猫,说咱们玩一个游戏,你每次可以拿出自己一半的鱼(向上取整)作为赌注,我每次拿出跟你相同数目的鱼,你赢了全归你,你输了全归我,由于你的胜率p大于1/2,你也不想明天还要当帕鲁的事情被别人知道对不对

蓝猫心想,我要是赢了超过100条鱼,那黑猫今天这么努力明天却还要当帕鲁,好可怜,所以我刚好有200条鱼的时候就收手,这样鱼也没有浪费明天我们也都可以休息!当然就算一方输光日子也过的下去,玩就要玩的尽兴,让我们开始吧

求蓝猫和黑猫赢的概率

result

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