petermartens98/fc-cincinnati-attendance-analysis-and-forcasting

This study used Python, NumPy, Pandas, matplotlib, seaborn, statsmodels, scikitlearn, and scipy to analyze the effects of promotional nights, day of the week, and team performance on attendance at FC Cincinnati matches in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. The analysis included data visualization, descriptive analytics, hypothesis testing, and regression.

FC-Cincinnati-Attendance-Analysis-and-Forcasting

Write Up available in PDF, Visualizations and Statistical Analysis available in Jupyter Notebook

Introduction

This analysis aims to explore the effects of promotional nights, day of the week, and team performance on attendance at FC Cincinnati matches in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. To achieve this, data was gathered from various sources, including FBRef.com, then cleaned and processed using Python, NumPy, and Pandas, and then further visualized using matplotlib and seaborn, with additional insight from libraries such as statsmodels, scikitlearn, and scipy. The study employed data visualizations, descriptive analytics, hypothesis testing, and regression analysis to evaluate the impact of these factors on attendance.

Complete DataSet Screenshtot

Top Attendance Promotions

Impact of Promotional Nights on Attendance

• Average Attendances:

Promo Nights:          22590 
Non-Promo Nights:      20868

• Statistical Significance

A two-sample Welch t-test was conducted to determine if there was a significant difference in attendance between weekend and weekday matches. The t-statistic was 1.1927 and the p-value was 0.2498, indicating that there was no significant difference in attendance between the two groups. Hence, the data suggest that there is no statistically significant difference between the attendance for weekend and weekday matchups.

Impact of Weekend vs. Weekday Matches on Attendance

• Average Attendances:

Weekends:               21766
Weekdays:               22010

• Statistical Significance

A two-sample Welch t-test was conducted to determine if there was a significant difference in attendance between weekend and weekday matches. The t-statistic was 0.8242 and the p-value was 0.2241, indicating that there was no significant difference in attendance between the two groups. Hence, the data suggest that there is no statistically significant difference between the attendance for weekend and weekday matchups.

Impact of Team Performance on Attendance

Correlation between Current Win % on Attendance

Attendance Trend Line Equation: y = 9860.688829x + (18492.253261)

R-squared: 0.1691

Match-by-Match Attendance Forecast Model

Trendline Equation over 2 years vs seasonal trendline:

y = 133.54x + 19493.73 -> For 2023: x = 35 to 52 => 24168 to 26438

Conclusion

In conclusion, the analysis found that promotional nights have a positive impact on attendance, but there was no significant difference in attendance between weekend and weekday matches. There is a positive correlation between team performance and attendance, but the relationship is weak. The forecast model predicts an average attendance of 24168 to 26438 for the 2023 season. If given more time, analyzing the impact of weather and player injuries, understanding fan preferences for promotions, and exploring the relationship between attendance and soccer statistics would provide additional insights. Overall, these findings can help FC Cincinnati improve fan engagement and drive attendance in future seasons.