worldcup-2022's Introduction

GV2022 World Cup Predicitons

I entered a contest to try and predict the 2022 Fifa World Cup with very little prior knoweldge. You can read a blog post about my attempt here: https://philswatton.github.io/r/2022/11/21/world-cup-forecasting.html

Files

01_elo.R: Processing of data, computation of elo ratings for the teams (see note below on data)
02_monte-carlo.R: Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament
03_results.R: Producing outputs from the simulation into nicer formats

Data

Past match results data: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017?resource=download
2022 fixtures data: https://fixturedownload.com/
team_ratings.RData elo ratings data produced in script 01
fixtures.RData: slightly tidied fixture data for group stages produced in script 01

As in the code, I stored the files from these in a 'data' folder. If using this repository, you will have to download the data and create this yourself. (Sorry!)

I have however included data I generated myself. So you'll need to reproduce the data folder for script 01, but

Results

results.RData: Various R objects encoding simulation results used in script 03
results/results_01_group_fixtures.csv: Group stages game fixture probabilities
results/results_02_expected_group_order.csv: Group stages order predictions and probabilities (for most likely order)
results/results_03_expected_team_performances.csv: Expected team performances given in probabilities for reaching the last 16, reaching the quarter finals, reaching the semi finals, reaching the final, and winning overall
HTML versions of results 02 and 03 are also available!

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