poppingtonic/truthcoin

Trustless and Decentralized Bitcoin Prediction Marketplace

Truthcoin: Decentralized Bitcoin Prediction Markets

Truthcoin is my ambitious project to create a trustless P2P prediction-marketplace. This is possible because, unlike most marketplaces, the end product of a prediction market (PM) is information. Bitcoin adds the second piece of the puzzle: the exchange of value. The end result is the first of its kind: a market for actual prediction-commodities, which have a value based on their accuracy and not based on the behaviour of any administrator, rival trader, or counterparty.

Traditional PMs have been persecuted much in the same way as e-cash systems, and current Bitcoin alternatives require the user to trust the operator to 1] keep funds safe, 2] create desirable markets, and 3] correctly determine the outcome of markets.

Contract outcomes are determined in a trustless and decentralized way, through a weighted vote based on present and past consensus with a unique Nash Equilibrium where all voters report accurately on the state of markets. Incentives are to only create contracts which are useful (measured by trading volume), and unambiguous (measured by vote-similarity). Additionally, market liquidity (a frequent problem) is guaranteed to be permanently nonzero thanks to the LMSR, an invention of Dr. Robin Hanson. The LMSR's use of an update rule instead of actual Buy/Ask trading greatly simplifies implementation, while allowing for realtime buying and selling.

Pipeline

Now: Transaction Types and Data Structures (for implementation planning) Up Next: FAQ Up Next: Other cleanup, LMSR/Continuous .xls file-readability. Up Next: Seek funding / development team.

What's going on!?

Read [this](https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/raw/master/docs/1_Purpose.pdf) to understand "what this is and why it is important".

Where is Everything?

Readings/Documentation/Purpose/Applications/Tech = 'docs' folder R code = 'lib' folder Python code = 'pylib' folder

The 'lib' folder also has html files which describe the outcome of function tests and demonstrations. These files were automatically generated from R code using R-markdown, and the .rmd files are included alongside the html files for reproducibility.

How do I contact you?

[email protected] Please share your opinion, and your questions so the FAQ can grow!

Donation Address

1M5tVTtynuqiS7Goq8hbh5UBcxLaa5XQb8