The influence of time scale on autocorrelation as an early warning indicator of regime shift
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0223366
The influence of time scale on autocorrelation as an early warning indicator of regime shift
The influence of time scale on autocorrelation as an early warning indicator of regime shift
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0223366
something is wrong with ac
timeScales/inst/jags/tv_arp_noMean.jags
Line 45 in 6ea3a87
Both here and in the model with a time-varying mean, the first p
values (p is AR order) of the Phi parameter have a really strong prior. I think I originally did this b/c I stopped wanting to use the uniform prior (perhaps b/c of infinite slice? more later), and when I started using the normal, I didn't want it to allow for values outside the -1,1 interval. This must have been before I discovered the truncation notation, as I use this T() notation in other parts of the model.
Whatever the reason, the main motivation behind my close and revisionist inspection of these models is that I am sometimes getting this weird 'infinite' slice error from JAGS --- it's indicating the Phi state is suddenly gaining probability of 1 or something like that. Basically, it is getting stuck.
Get back to this later.
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