rlamboll/carbonbudget

Carbon Budget Calculator

Calculates remaining carbon budget given atmospheric simulation inputs. The workhorse script is src/run_budget_calculator.py Expects to find data from MAGICC or FaIR simulations in the InputData folder in the standard format output for a pyam dataframe. Specification of how to read this data and options for running the code are all found at the beginning of src/run_budget_calculator.py.

The calculation is based on the framework in Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets, Rogelj et al. 2019. This revolves around five terms: the warming to date (input directly), the non-CO2 warming (calculated from scenarios analysed previously by MAGICC or FaIR), the zero-emissions commitment (ZEC, input directly), the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of CO2 (TCRE, parameters are input for a distribution which may be either lognormal or normal) and unrepresented Earth feedbacks (a linear function of temperature change).

By changing the value runver this code can replicate the values in the IPCC reports for AR6 WGI and WGIII.
With runver = sr15wg1 this replicates Table 5.8 in Chapter 5 (Canadell et al, 2021), Table TS.3 in the Technical Summary (Arias et al, 2021) and Table SPM.2 of the Summary for Policymakers (IPCC, 2021) of the IPCC AR6 WGI report. Note that values reported in the report are rounded to the nearest 10 PgC or 50 GtCO2.

With runver = ar6wg3 this replicates the carbon budget results in chapter 3 (Riahi et al, 2022) of the IPCC AR6 WG3 report.

Arias, P.A., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R.G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M.D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P.W., Trewin, B., Achuta Rao, K., Adhikary, B., Allan, R.P., Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J.G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W., Collins, W.D., Connors, S.L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F.J., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Diongue Niang, A., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Fyfe, J.C., Gillett, N.P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J.M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E., Hewitt, H.T., Hope, P., Islam, A.S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D.S., Kopp, R.E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T.K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P.M.S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A.C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B.H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S.I., Sörensson, A.A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Treguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X., Zickfeld, K., 2021. Technical Summary, in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S.L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M.I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J.B.R., Maycock, T.K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B. (Eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Slade, R. and Khourdajie, A. Al and van Diemen, R. and McCollum, D. and Pathak, M. and Some, S. and Vyas, P. and Fradera, R. and Belkacemi, M. and Hasija, A. and Lisboa, G. and Luz, S. and Malley, J., 2022. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Canadell, J.G., Monteiro, P.M.S., Costa, M.H., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Cox, P.M., Eliseev, A.V., Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S., Koven, C., Lohila, A., Patra, P.K., Piao, S., Rogelj, J., Syampungani, S., Zaehle, S., Zickfeld, K., 2021. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks, in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S.L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M.I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J.B.R., Maycock, T.K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B. (Eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

IPCC, 2021. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

When re-using the data of global warming induced by non-CO2 species, please reference Cross-Chapter Box 7.1 (Nicholls et al, 2021).

Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Forster, P., Armour, K., Berntsen, T., Collins, W., Jones, C., Lewis, J., Marotzke, J., Milinski, S., Rogelj, J., Smith, C., 2021. Cross-Chapter Box 7.1: Physical emulation of Earth System Models for scenario classification and knowledge integration in AR6, in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S.L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M.I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J.B.R., Maycock, T.K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B. (Eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.