A hidden markov model based optical character recognizer
Assumption: Each character t+1 is conditionally independent of all other characters given the character t
Assumption: Each pixel is conditionally independent given the observed character
Likelihood: pixel-matched ~ Binomial(n, mu)
Prior: mu ~ Beta(alpha, beta)
Posterior: mu|data ~ Beta(alpha+x, beta+n-x)
Bayesian Solution: P(pixel-matched|mu) = (alpha + x) / (alpha + beta + n)
where x: number of pixels that matched
n: total number of pixels
alpha: pseudocount for matched pixels
beta: pseudocount for pixels that were not matched
If, we have seen no data at all
P(pixel-matched|mu) = (alpha) / (alpha + beta)