sidharthrajaram/crystalball

🔮 Predicting NBA games using statistics (65% accuracy so far)

Crystalball is a statistical method of predicting outcomes of NBA games. Accuracy has varied from 64% to 68% over the last couple of years that it has been operational. Feel free to predict NBA games using the simple script as outlined below.

Notes for the 2020-2021 Season:

No home or away dis/advantages due to no in-person attendance at games (COVID-19)

predict_game.py is the new and improved version of the game outcome predictor.

To run: python3 predict_game.py <home_year> <home_team_id> <away_year> <away_team_id>

For example: python3 predict_game.py 2021 MEM 2021 ATL

sim.py contains the primary methods for simulating games

utils.py contains methods for cleaning / parsing player data

Total Results

Total Games	Games Predicted Correctly	Accuracy
23	15	65.2%

Update: I stopped writing up the daily predictions in the readme, but let me know if that's something you want to see.

12.29.20 Forecast

"Home"	"Away"	Predicted Winner + %	Prediction Timestamp	Real Winner	Notes
CLE	NYK	CLE 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	NYK	xx
PHI	TOR	PHI 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	PHI	xx
DET	GSW	DET 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	GSW	xx
IND	BOS	IND 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	BOS	xx
WAS	CHI	WAS 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	CHI	xx
MIA	MIL	MIA 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	MIL	xx
OKC	ORL	ORL 88.36%	12/29/2020 16:18	ORL	xx
PHO	NOP	PHO 100.0%	12/29/2020 16:18	PHO	xx
SAC	DEN	SAC 98.96%	12/29/2020 16:18	SAC	xx
LAC	MIN	LAC 59.49%	12/29/2020 16:18	LAC	xx

12.26.20 Forecast

"Home"	"Away"	Predicted Winner + %	Prediction Timestamp	Real Winner	Notes
MEM	ATL	ATL 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	ATL	xx
DET	CLE	CLE 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	CLE	xx
WAS	ORL	ORL 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	ORL	xx
CHO	OKC	xx	xx	xx	No data on OKC yet
NYK	PHI	PHI 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	PHI	xx
CHI	IND	IND 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	IND	xx
SAS	TOR	SAS 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	SAS	xx
UTA	MIN	UTA 100.0%	12/26/2020 14:02	MIN	xx
SAC	PHO	SAC 98.945%	12/26/2020 14:02	SAC	xx
POR	HOU	xx	xx	xx	No data on HOU yet

12.25.20 Forecast

"Home"	"Away"	Predicted Winner + %	Prediction Timestamp	Real Winner	Notes
MIA	NOP	NOP 100.0%	12/24/2020 18:43	MIA	xx
MIL	GSW	MIL 100.0%	12/24/2020 18:43	MIL	xx
BOS	BRK	BRK 100.0%	12/24/2020 18:43	BRK	xx
LAL	DAL	DAL 53.397%	12/24/2020 19:04	LAL	xx
DEN	LAC	LAC 78.898%	12/24/2020 18:43	LAC	xx

crystalball's Issues

How can i run script

Hi sidhart,
how are you?
i have a question
How can i run script?, but i dont know that script i should run.

trouble running

Hi, im not able to run this as i keep getting the error: Traceback (most recent call last):
File "C:/Users/risin/OneDrive/Documents/GitHub/CrystalBall/predict_game.py", line 6, in
simulate_game(sys.argv[1], sys.argv[3], sys.argv[2], sys.argv[4], display_info=True)
IndexError: list index out of range

Need somes info

Hey,

I'v fork the project and i'm looking for work on ;)
Actually i haven't my computer so i can't look python version needing.
Can you give me library and python version you use on master and lib infos ?
I'm looking for create docker adapatation (and i pull it on your project ;) )

Running Script

Hi,

I'm currently getting the following error, wondering if this is the correct format on running the script.
python3 predict_game.py 2020, DET, 2020, ATL

x@MacBook-Pro CrystalBall-master % python3 predict_game.py 2020, DET, 2020, ATL
Simulation Presets:
Epochs: 100000
Home Team Variation Range Max: 100
Away Team Variation Range Max: 100

Traceback (most recent call last):
File "predict_game.py", line 6, in
simulate_game(sys.argv[1], sys.argv[3], sys.argv[2], sys.argv[4], display_info=True)
File "/Users/zzz/Desktop/CrystalBall-master/sim.py", line 28, in simulate_game
t1_metric = team_score(t1_id, t1_year)
File "/Users/zzzDesktop/CrystalBall-master/sim.py", line 15, in team_score
df = getTeamDf(team_id, year)
File "/Users/zzz/Desktop/CrystalBall-master/sim.py", line 10, in getTeamDf
df_header = get_team_data(team_id, year, header=True)
File "/Users/zzz/Desktop/CrystalBall-master/utils.py", line 12, in get_team_data
team_stats_tuple = getTeamStats(team_id, year)
File "/Users/zzz/Desktop/CrystalBall-master/team_scraper.py", line 14, in getTeamStats
with urllib.request.urlopen(url) as response:
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/urllib/request.py", line 222, in urlopen
return opener.open(url, data, timeout)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/urllib/request.py", line 531, in open
response = meth(req, response)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/urllib/request.py", line 640, in http_response
response = self.parent.error(
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/urllib/request.py", line 569, in error
return self._call_chain(*args)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/urllib/request.py", line 502, in _call_chain
result = func(*args)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/urllib/request.py", line 649, in http_error_default
raise HTTPError(req.full_url, code, msg, hdrs, fp)
urllib.error.HTTPError: HTTP Error 404: Not Found

thanks,

Feature: Connect to Betfair

Hi,

Would you be interested in connecting to Betfair and automating the betting(paper)?

Would be an interesting exercise!

More date sources

Hi,

First, thank you for your work, is it a very good project !

I'd like to add more date sources i see it's in team_scraper.py

    team = team_id.upper()
url = "https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/" + team + "/2019.html"```

I think it's more precise if you have more date, because in 2019 we have only 2 month past.
I want to scrap 2018 and 2019 years, it's possible to edit easily your code for it ?

Thank you !