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View Code? Open in Web Editor NEWBack-of-the-envelope analysis of excess deaths in the time of COVID-19 (coronavirus)
Back-of-the-envelope analysis of excess deaths in the time of COVID-19 (coronavirus)
Creating ci95 bands using historical data is fun, but at the moment it doesn't take the size of the population into account. That will have changed over the years, and as soon as we're starting to compare between countries/areas: it'll definitly vary between countries.
So we'll have to start expressing the ci95 bands in relative terms, e.g. deaths per million. And we'll need population data for that. My guess is that a yearly resolution would do here (no need for weekly population counts ๐)
cc @wkoot and @stevenwoudenberg: would love your thoughts.
Data is available separately for England+Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland:
England and Wales:
Weekly deaths registered in England and Wales (back to 2010): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Monthly deaths in England and Wales (back to 2006): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence
Office of National Statistics (ONS) mentions that they started collecting data on weekly deaths in 2005, but I can only find it from 2010 onward.
Scotland weekly deaths (2004 onwards): https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/weekly-data-on-births-and-deaths
Northern Ireland (2009 onwards): https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
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