This paper show that certain factors causing the rise in gasoline prices discussed by many observers may have been overstated. Some would only briefly raise weekly gasoline prices, before fading rather slowly. However, the short-run effects on the overall price would be sizable. Arima model is used for the prediction of average gasoline price in the US which goes from $4.035 in 2020/4 to $3.68 nine months later before the price starts to rise again. This model performs well in predicting the average price for the upcoming weeks with 95% confidence intervals.
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