yubinye/trade_deficit_forecasting

Provide data and code for Writing Sample

Trade Deficit Forecasting

This report examines the relationship of the quarterly trade deficit of the US with China and its budget deficit and tries to throw some light on the possible future trend of quarterly trade deficit. In the application of VAR forecasting, by comparing the minimum RMSE we select lag of order to compute the future trade deficit. Keyword: VAR, Lag selection, Machine Learning, Granger Causality, Twin Deficit